US-RUSSIA MILITARY RIVALRY

Of interest are the military operations and transactions in the Southeast Asian and Indian Ocean geographic area delineated in this story.

Russian naval vessels from the Black Sea Fleet recently held joint military exercises with the Indian navy's Western Fleet in the Arabian Sea. At the same time, the Russian Pacific Fleet conducted maneuvers with the Indian Eastern Fleet in the Bay of Bengal. According to Admiral Vladimir Pepelyaev, the exercises, first of their kind for Russia since the Soviet collapse in 1991, focused on air defense, joint submarine hunts, and search and rescue operations using naval helicopters. Analysts view the exercises as a clear indication that Russia has maintained the capability to project military power well beyond its frontiers.

The presence of Russian naval groups in Indian waters is an indication of significant bilateral military ties, in a situation where India remains less than warm towards China and even less friendly towards Pakistan. Though New Delhi's submarine force outnumbers that of Islamabad, Pakistan is moving to increase its submarine force. Therefore, India probably will move to enhance its anti-submarine capability.

Nations bordering the South China Sea began purchasing submarines during the late 1980s and early 1990s to monitor and protect vital shipping lanes. China, Indonesia, Malaysia and Singapore are known to operate submarines in the area.

Malaysia has developed a close relationship with Russia in a deal to buy 18 SU-30MKM fighter jets worth about $900 million, scheduled to be delivered in stages beginning in 2006. Russian Defense Minister Sergei Ivanov stated the deal includes technical and upgrade services and represents an ongoing military arrangement. Malaysia had previously purchased 18 MiG-29 fighters for $600 million in 1994. Similarly, the Russian media has hinted that Malaysia may also buy about 100 T-90S tanks, as well as BTR-3 and BMP armored vehicles, Metis-M anti-tank missiles and Igla hand-held air defense missiles.

Additional Russian arms deals in the area include the sale of two long-range Su-27s and two Su-30s for delivery this year to Indonesia. According to General Endriartono Sutarto, Indonesia also plans to procure at least another 44 planes over the next four years at an estimated price of $1.4 billion.

In another deal, China's Defense Ministry and Russia's arms export monopoly Rosoboronexport clinched a $1 billion deal for the shipment to the Chinese navy of 24 Su-30MKK multi-role naval fighters.

Even the most uninformed observer would have to conclude that the multi-lateral military buildup in the region is disturbing and an indication of continuing stressful international relations. One would also have to conclude that Russia is a major contributor to the worldwide proliferation of arms.

US presence in the area include bases in Korea and Japan and access agreements with several Southeast Asian partners. Singapore recently made port facilities available to US warships, including aircraft carriers. A Visiting Forces Agreement is being negotiated with the Philippines and Thailand remains an important refueling and transit point. And, long-time ally Australia provides key facilities for US combined and unilateral actions.

Simply put, all these actions are part of a massive, deadly-serious chess game.