Monday, June 06, 2005

Brits Release Cheesy Leukemia Study

All too frequently, an organization publishes the results of a study which authoritatively concludes nothing but, to justify the group's existence and the expenditure of considerable funds, they fudge the wording in the final report to make it appear that something was determined. Read the following news article, paying particular attention to the title.

ABC News Online:
Childhood leukaemia linked to power lines

A child living near a high-voltage power line may run a higher risk of contracting leukaemia - the most common childhood cancer, a study says.

While the study showed an increased incidence of leukaemia in children whose home address at birth was within 200 metres of a power line, the authors admit they have not proved that proximity to the power lines was the cause.

"There is an association between childhood leukaemia and proximity of home address at birth to high-voltage power lines," the study concluded.

The team, which included John Swanson the scientific adviser to National Grid Transco, said it had no satisfactory explanation for the results in terms of the power lines' magnetic fields directly causing the cancer.

"The findings are not supported by convincing laboratory data ... We emphasise again the uncertainty about whether this statistical association represents a causal relation," the study said.
So, the first paragraph says there MAY be a chance of higher risk. The second paragraph says the researchers HAVE NOT PROVED that the childhood leukemia is caused by high voltage lines. The third paragraph says there is AN ASSOCIATION between the lines and the leukemia. The fourth paragraph says the researchers HAVE NO SATISFACTORY EXPLANATION, and the fifth paragraph states that the FINDINGS ARE NOT SUPPORTED by lab data and that the researchers emphasize their UNCERTAINTY about the findings.

Encapsulated, the study found nothing but "an association" between leukemia and power lines. When one realizes that it's possible to find "an association" between leukemia and eating carrots, one has to conclude that the study's findings are less than weak.

But wait, there's more. According to Gerald Draper of the University of Oxford Childhood Cancer Research Group,
"We say the results could be down to chance but they're statistically really strong. It looks as though they are real, we just don't know," he told reporters.
To interpret, a credentialed researcher says, "Flipping coins could give us the same results and we wouldn't be able to explain them either."

Now, let's go back to the title of the news article which states that childhood leukemia is linked to power lines. That characterization is misleading and it's not isolated. Unfortunately, it's reflected in the reporting of a number of news outlets. The results of the study, reported in the British Medical Journal, indicated that an "association" exists between the two, not a link. And, even the "association" could be a function of chance (their word) and they emphasize that they are not certain of that. In a nutshell, the study found a slight statistical anomaly and the researchers haven't been able to explain it.

What is sad about this situation is the simple fact that most people will only remember that high voltage transmission lines are linked to childhood leukemia. And, anybody who has an anti-civilization agenda or a personal complaint will be heralding the study as proof that the electric company shouldn't be allowed to build or that damages should be awarded in a lawsuit.

In reality, the study didn't find a link between high voltage and leukemia and, buried in the researchers' report, it's so stated. However, through cheesy reporting by the researchers and the media, the public has been fed a myth.

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