The campaign so far

McCain could win big in November: "It sounds crazy at first. Amid dire reports about the toxic political environment for Republican candidates and the challenges facing John McCain, many top GOP strategists believe he can defeat Barack Obama - and by a margin exceeding President Bush's Electoral College victory in 2004. At first blush, McCain's recent rough patch and the considerable financial disadvantage confronting him make such predictions seem absurd. Indeed, as Republicans experience their worst days since Watergate, those same GOP strategists are reticent to publicly tout the prospect of a sizable McCain victory for fear of looking foolish. But the contours of the electoral map, combined with McCain's unique strengths and the nature of Obama's possible vulnerabilities, have led to a cautious and muted optimism that McCain could actually surpass Bush's 35-electoral-vote victory in 2004. Though they expect he would finish far closer to Obama in the popular vote, the thinking is that he could win by as many 50 electoral votes."

McCain has nationwide edge over Obama, poll shows: "Rasmussen Reports' Daily Tracking Poll has John McCain leading Barack Obama 46% to 42% nationally, the first time in weeks that either candidate has had a lead of four points or more. McCain leads Hillary Clinton 47%-44% in the poll; Rasmussen's daily tracking results are reported on a four-day rolling average based on interviews with 1,600 likely voters. The margin of error is plus or minus 3 percentage points. Pollsters say McCain's lead "can be traced directly to the fact that just 66% of Democrats say they will vote for Obama at this time" and 23% of Democrats say if the election were held now, they'd vote for McCain. Another 11% say they'd go for some other candidate or remain undecided... "The numbers for Florida and Ohio are good news for Sen. John McCain and should be worrisome for Sen. Barack Obama. That is especially true about Ohio, which decided the 2004 election. Ohio's economy is worse than the rest of the country and the Republican brand there is in disrepute. McCain's Buckeye lead may be a sign that nationally this may not be the easy Democratic walk to the White House that many expected," said Peter A. Brown, assistant director of the Quinnipiac University Polling Institute."


Posted by John Ray.