The big picture: America is no longer ruled by whites

The article below is written by the Chief Reporter for Britain's leading conservative newspaper. It addresses matters that U.S. commentators tend to slide over (out of political correctness) but which need mentioning, in my view. There have been many knowledgeable analyses of the demographics behind Obama's victory (e.g. by Karl Rove) but to me they seem unable to see the forest for the trees. The plain fact is that there is large population growth in segments of the population who are systematically hostile to the GOP and it is difficult to see a way around that. Will Obama be the first in a long line of Democrat Presidents?

The only hope -- and it is a good one -- is that the Donks will make such a huge mess of things in the next two to four years that many voters will vote for any alternative to them. That suggests to me that the GOP senators should make sparing use of the filibuster in the next two to four years. Let the Democrats have their own way on most things and just say "I told you so" when it all implodes (e.g. in huge unemployment). Let them hang themselves by their own stupidity.

President-Elect Obama attracted 43 per cent of the white vote, with 55 per cent backing John McCain. But because white voters make up an ever-decreasing percentage of the total, Mr Obama still achieved an overwhelming victory because he attracted 95 per cent of the black vote and two thirds of Hispanic and Asian voters. Black and ethnic minority voters accounted for 26 per cent of all votes cast in the election. As recently as 2000, they made up just 19 per cent of voters. At the current rate of change, white voters will be in the minority by 2042, and with black and ethnic minority voters traditionally voting Democrat, regardless of the candidate's skin colour, the Republicans are facing a long-term problem.

Mr Obama's campaign team said the Democrat had put together a "national coalition" of voters from all backgrounds. "We were able to overcome a lot of the things that a lot of people thought were insuperable barriers in our politics," his chief strategist, David Axelrod, said. Mr Obama may not have won over the majority of white voters but he still managed a larger slice of the white vote than any of his recent predecessors, including Bill Clinton. The President-Elect also increased the Democratic share of the vote in almost every other demographic sector. Male voters were split almost exactly down the middle between the two candidates, compared with 55 per cent voting Republican in 2004, and Mr Obama increased the Democratic share of the female vote from 51 per cent in 2004 to 56 per cent.

One of the biggest swings to the Democrats came among the youngest voters, with 66 per cent of 18-29 year old voters backing Mr Obama, compared with 54 per cent in the previous election. Mr Obama also picked up 69 per cent of first time voters, compared with just 53 per cent who voted for John Kerry in 2004. One in five of all first time voters were black. Dr Scott Blinder, Research Fellow in US Politics at Nuffield College, Oxford, said: "As well as the changes in the racial composition of the electorate, we have seen a significant shift in the youth vote towards the Democrats. "Obama has taken 69 per cent of first time voters, a significant increase on previous elections, and that might have long-term implications for the Republicans, as we are seeing a whole new generation of Democratic voters coming through.

More here



Posted by John Ray.