Tuesday, November 10, 2015
World Bank foresees global warming as hurting the poor
It probably would not, though Warmism certainly will. It would open up large parts of Siberia and Northern Canada to farming and thus increase world food supply. And on past form, food surpluses tend to be given away to needy nations. In the days of the Soviet Union, Europe used to give its food surpluses to Russia! And even if the food is not given away, its price would fall, thus making it easier for poor nations such as Egypt to buy it.
And a warmer ocean would give off more evaporation, thus leading to more precipitation -- i.e. rain and snow. And erratic rainfall is the big bugbear for farmers rich and poor alike. So poor farmers would in fact find it EASIER to grow their own crops, thus making them richer in real terms. So I can't see how global warming would hurt the poor. It would probably make them richer.
But some poor farmers live in low-lying areas -- notably the multiply unfortunate Bangladeshis -- so would they not get flooded off their land altogether by rising sea levels? Probably not.
To revisit for a moment what I wrote yesterday: The feared 2 degree temperature rise might not melt glaciers at all. And no melting glaciers means no sea-level rise. The principal influence on glacial mass is precipitation. More precipitation leads to greater glacial mass. So polar and other glaciers could grow rather than shrink and might in doing so cause sea levels to FALL!
Be that as it may, in past warm periods a lot of polar ice did not melt. How much would 2 degrees melt? Given that temperatures at the poles are MANY degrees below the melting point of ice, NO polar ice at all might melt. And it's the poles that matter. Antarctica alone has 91% of earth's glacial mass.
But what about disease? Warmists are always going on about how tropical diseases will become more prevalent and poor people have fewer resources for dealing with illness. At the risk of being nauseatingly repetitious, I come from the tropics so I have seen and probably experienced Ross River virus and Dengue fever up close. They are rarely fatal and are mostly experienced as a bad bout of the 'flu.
And the real issue is surely in any case total mortality, rather than individual ilnesses. And the seasons tell us about that. Winter is when most people die so it is cooling rather than warming that has most effect on total mortality. A warmer climate would be healthier overall for every one -- rich and poor alike
The one thing that will undoubtedly hurt the poor is Warmism. Warmists are constantly trying to stop poor countries from building hydro-electric dams and they obstruct economic development in poor countries generally. If poor countries get rich they will indeed use more resources and emit more CO2, so it is needful to keep them poor, in the ethical desert that is Warmism.
Things left out of a scientific or scholarly discussion are often politely referred to as "lacunae". I think I have demonstrated that the World Bank could aptly be renamed the "Lacuna Bank".
Climate change could push more than 100 million people into extreme poverty by 2030 by disrupting agriculture and fueling the spread of malaria and other diseases, the World Bank said in a report Sunday.
Released just weeks ahead of a UN climate summit in Paris, the report highlighted how the impact of global warming is borne unevenly, with the poor woefully unprepared to deal with climate shocks such as rising seas or severe droughts.
‘‘They have fewer resources and receive less support from family, community, the financial system, and even social safety nets to prevent, cope, and adapt,’’ the Washington-based World Bank said.
How to help poor countries — and poor communities within countries — deal with climate is one of the crunch issues in talks on a global climate accord that’s supposed to be adopted next month in Paris.
Those who say rich countries aren’t doing enough to help the poor said the report added emphasis to demands for billions of dollars in so-called climate finance to developing countries. ‘‘The statistics in the World Bank report are suitably shocking and I hope they force world leaders to sit up and take notice,’’ said Mohamed Adow of Christian Aid.
Separately on Sunday, Foreign Minister Laurent Fabius of France said more than 100 world leaders will attend the upcoming UN climate conference in Paris, including President Vladimir Putin of Russia.
Fabius said Putin will be among speakers on the first day, with President Obama and leaders of India and China. Organizers expect 40,000 to attend the Nov. 30-Dec. 11 conference, plus thousands of activists from environmental, rights, and other groups.
Despite pledges to rein in emissions of carbon dioxide and other global warming gases, climate change isn’t likely to stop anytime soon.
But efforts to protect the poor, such as generally improving access to health care and social safety nets, and targeted measures to upgrade flood defenses and deploy more heat-tolerant crops could prevent most of the negative consequences of climate change on poverty, the World Bank said.
Posted by John J. Ray (M.A.; Ph.D.).