Monday, May 02, 2016
The latest Warmist scare: Oxygen deprivation
There are out at the moment any number of reports saying that the oceans are running out of oxygen and all the fish are going to die soon. So I decided to look at the scientific paper the whole scare is based on. Its abstract is below. Its theoretical underpinnings are fair enough. Warm water DOES contain less gas than cold water.
But theory doesn't always get us far. The warmest waters on earth are of course in the tropics. So they should contain less oxygen. So how come tropical waters are teeming with life? In Australian waters, it is the most Northerly part of the Great Barrier reef (the part closest to the equator) that has the greatest species diversity, for instance.
So much for theory. Let us look at what the paper actually says. They claim NO global effects so far at all. What they claim, rather laughably, is a possibility of detection. And they put even that well ahead in the future: "widespread detection of forced deoxygenation is possible by 2030–2040". Nothing to give even the most dedicated Warmist an erection there
Finding forced trends in oceanic oxygen
Matthew C. Long et al.
Anthropogenically forced trends in oceanic dissolved oxygen are evaluated in Earth system models in the context of natural variability. A large ensemble of a single Earth system model is used to clearly identify the forced component of change in interior oxygen distributions and to evaluate the magnitude of this signal relative to noise generated by internal climate variability. The time of emergence of forced trends is quantified on the basis of anomalies in oxygen concentrations and trends. We find that the forced signal should already be evident in the southern Indian Ocean and parts of the eastern tropical Pacific and Atlantic basins; widespread detection of forced deoxygenation is possible by 2030–2040. In addition to considering spatially discrete metrics of detection, we evaluate the similarity of the spatial structures associated with natural variability and the forced trend. Outside of the subtropics, these patterns are not wholly distinct on the isopycnal surfaces considered, and therefore, this approach does not provide significantly advanced detection. Our results clearly demonstrate the strong impact of natural climate variability on interior oxygen distributions, providing an important context for interpreting observations.
Posted by John J. Ray (M.A.; Ph.D.).