Monday, August 29, 2016
Substituting prophecy for facts
It must be hard being a Warmist at times. The article below admits that the Antarctic is not shrinking and notes that all the models say that it should. The scientific response to those facts would be to reject the models. But you can't do that, of course. So they simply do some more model runs with models that are already known to be wrong and predict that warming in the Antarctic will happen "real soon now".
So how do they account for what is not happening in the Antarctic so far? They say that what is happening there is all a product of large "natural variability". Maybe so but at that rate could the slight global warming during C20 also be a product of natural variability? If not, why not? They offer no test of when natural variability is at work or not other than whether it suits their preconceptions. So we have yet another example of how Warmism destroys science
Anthropogenic impact on Antarctic surface mass balance, currently masked by natural variability, to emerge by mid-century
Michael Previdi and Lorenzo M Polvani
Global and regional climate models robustly simulate increases in Antarctic surface mass balance (SMB) during the twentieth and twenty-first centuries in response to anthropogenic global warming. Despite these robust model projections, however, observations indicate that there has been no significant change in Antarctic SMB in recent decades. We show that this apparent discrepancy between models and observations can be explained by the fact that the anthropogenic climate change signal during the second half of the twentieth century is small compared to the noise associated with natural climate variability. Using an ensemble of 35 global coupled climate models to separate signal and noise, we find that the forced SMB increase due to global warming in recent decades is unlikely to be detectable as a result of large natural SMB variability. However, our analysis reveals that the anthropogenic impact on Antarctic SMB is very likely to emerge from natural variability by the middle of the current century, thus mitigating future increases in global sea level.
Environmental Research Letters, Volume 11, Number 9