True believers

Back in the '50s, some psychologists led by Leon Festinger looked at believers in prophecies about the end of the world.  He was particularly interested in what would happen when the due date for the end  came and the world continued on as before.  He found that most believers were unshaken.  They modified their beliefs slightly but otherwise continued on as before.  Below is what Festinger said about such believers in prophecy.  We must expect believers in the prophecy of catastrophic global warming to be the same

A man with a conviction is a hard man to change. Tell him you disagree and he turns away. Show him facts or figures and he questions your sources. Appeal to logic and he fails to see your point. We have all experienced the futility of trying to change a strong conviction, especially if the convinced person has some investment in his belief. We are familiar with the variety of ingenious defenses with which people protect their convictions, managing to keep them unscathed through the most devastating attacks. But man’s resourcefulness goes beyond simply protecting a belief. Suppose an individual believes something with his whole heart; suppose further that he has a commitment to this belief, that he has taken irrevocable actions because of it; finally, suppose that he is presented with evidence, unequivocal and undeniable evidence, that his belief is wrong: what will happen? The individual will frequently emerge, not only unshaken, but even more convinced of the truth of his beliefs than ever before. Indeed, he may even show a new fervor about convincing and converting other people to his view. --Leon Festinger, "When Prophecy Fails", 1956


Posted by John J. Ray (M.A.; Ph.D.).